While corporate advertising dollars increasingly shift toward streaming and digital platforms, the high-stakes political ad war is still being fiercely fought over the free airwaves. Traditional broadcast television companies are set to capture the greatest portion of political advertising spend ahead of the upcoming midterm elections, according to data from advertising intelligence firm AdImpact.
The 2025-26 election cycle is forecast to be the most expensive on record, with a predicted $11.6 billion in total spending. That figure surpasses the $11.2 billion spent on advertising during the 2024 presidential election cycle and the $8.9 billion spent during the 2022 midterm elections. An estimated $5.6 billion of advertising spend ahead of the midterms—representing roughly 48% of the total—is expected to flow directly to broadcast companies.
Industry experts point out that despite the digital migration of media consumption, political campaigns remain inherently localized operations. Daniel Kurnos, an equity research analyst at StoneX, noted in an interview that winning elections requires targeted local victories. "It’s still a local game," Kurnos said. "Yes, there are national elections, but you have to win counties. And if you have to win counties, you have to reach voters in these counties."
Furthermore, broadcast audiences tuning into major networks like NBC, ABC, CBS, Fox, or their local affiliate stations are generally more politically active. Kurnos emphasized that campaigns naturally cater to the demographics that reliably turn out to the polls, aiming for the votes that ultimately decide outcomes. This dynamic makes political advertising one of the last true bastions of broadcast television’s broad market dominance.
While broadcasters are expected to capture nearly half of political advertising spending this cycle, they account for just 7.7% of the more than $470 billion in general advertising spend forecast for the year in the United States, according to Magna data published by S&P Global.
Reach, Demographics, and Trust
Terry Nelson, a founding partner of Plus Communications and the national political director for former President George W. Bush’s 2004 reelection campaign, explained to CNBC that broadcast spots allow political strategists to reach large numbers of voters as efficiently as possible from a cost perspective. Though cord-cutting has fundamentally reshaped the modern television landscape as consumers increasingly drop traditional cable packages, broadcast television remains entirely free and broadly accessible to the public.
Broadcast media—which transmits vital local news, live sports, classic syndicated programming like "Wheel of Fortune," and national network shows—actually captured more hours of television use than cable in July, according to Nielsen’s monthly streaming report, The Gauge. The broadcast category accounted for 19.5% of television use, while cable captured 18.7%, though streaming led television usage overall at 49%.
Broadcast television continues to prove particularly effective at delivering massive viewership during live sports events. Nelson noted that major athletic broadcasts, such as an NFL game, consistently deliver massive audiences across large segments of the population. No matter how demographic groups are categorized—whether by gender, age, or other socioeconomic factors—an NFL game reliably delivers large portions of all those key audiences simultaneously.
Brad Seitter, CEO of TVB, a trade organization representing the local broadcast industry, summarized broadcast’s enduring strength during election cycles through a simple framework: trust, reach, and proven efficacy. Seitter told CNBC in a statement that television’s perceived reliability is of the utmost importance for high-stakes political campaigns, where gaining the trust of a voter directly equates to securing a vote for a candidate or ballot issue.
Seitter also argued that broadcast platforms do a superior job of promoting political candidates and issues compared to various digital channels. While voters frequently encounter political advertisements on social media, they are often conditioned to view digital content with skepticism. Conversely, because viewers deeply trust their local broadcast TV news, they are inherently more likely to believe the content of an ad appearing on a platform governed by long-standing rules, regulations, and institutional trust.
Strategic Prowess or Muscle Memory?
Seitter emphasized that political campaigns continue pouring billions into traditional TV advertising because there is clear, empirical evidence that these investments directly influence voting behavior. "Nothing moves the needle in polling like running an ad on broadcast TV," Seitter stated.
A study conducted by TVB found that 42% of Democrats and 49% of Republicans view broadcast or cable television as the most important form of advertising media in shaping how they cast their votes.
However, Erik Brydges, head of performance and political demand at sell-side ad company Magnite, suggested that the perceived influence of broadcasting is also tied to the long, established history of the medium. With broadcast television having operated for roughly 70 years, numerous studies have documented a clear correlation between the volume of TV ad points purchased and upward movements in polling numbers.
At the same time, Brydges believes that broadcasting’s continued market strength is partly driven by institutional habit. "A lot of campaigns and a lot of the consultants who work on the campaigns have just been really used to buying TV," Brydges said. He pointed to an old industry adage that no political consultant is ever likely to get fired for suggesting a traditional television buy.
Winning the Midterms
Broadcast companies are already experiencing a substantial financial windfall from elevated political advertising spending across the country. Publicly traded broadcasters, including Nexstar Media Group, Gray Media, Sinclair, and E.W. Scripps, all reported high political advertising revenue in their most recent fiscal quarters and forecast continued growth through the autumn as the midterms draw closer.
According to StoneX’s Kurnos, broadcasting companies heavily rely on this high-margin, low-lift political revenue to effectively manage their corporate debt. Because these media companies already maintain the necessary infrastructure for standard advertising, they do not need to invest heavily in creative development or specialized sales work. Political advertising revenue essentially translates directly into pure margin dollars.
Nexstar, which owns or operates at least 265 television stations alongside a diverse portfolio of websites and mobile applications, reported the highest quarterly revenue in the company’s history during its recent earnings cycle. Net revenue reached $1.99 billion, with advertising revenue hitting $862 million. While overall second-quarter revenue was significantly boosted by the incorporation of broadcast rival Tegna, which Nexstar officially acquired in March, the company still reported strong organic growth at its legacy stations driven by $75 million in political advertising revenue.
Gray Media, though operationally smaller than industry giants like Nexstar, remains a major company to watch due to its strategic market positioning. Kurnos noted that Gray operates stations in several media markets hosting the most competitive political races and the highest ad spending density. The company holds strong exposure across 12 competitive Senate races and all 11 competitive gubernatorial races. "Gray has always been the most efficient political generator of the broadcast group," Kurnos said.
Similarly, Sinclair and E.W. Scripps highlighted political ad revenue as a major bright spot in their recent financial disclosures. E.W. Scripps reported that political ad revenue reached its highest second-quarter level in company history, while Sinclair noted a 9% year-over-year increase compared to the second quarter of the previous midterms season in 2022.
"No other medium delivers a political message as powerfully and reliably as broadcast television," E.W. Scripps CEO Adam Symson stated during the company’s second-quarter earnings call.
The Next Frontier: Connected TV
On the opposite end of the modern media spectrum, connected TV (CTV) represents the fastest-growing category of political advertising spend, according to AdImpact data. This category encompasses internet-connected viewing devices such as Apple TV or Roku. Connected TV is predicted to capture 23%, or $2.7 billion, of this cycle’s total political ad spending, and is widely expected to continue capturing a larger share of the market in future cycles.
Magnite’s Brydges explained that the complicated and rapidly evolving nature of connected TV and free, ad-supported streaming television channels—commonly referred to as FAST channels—has historically prevented some political advertisers from fully capitalizing on massive streaming viewership numbers. Services like Pluto TV or Tubi may sometimes be unfamiliar to traditional political consultants, leading to hesitation regarding investment. However, Brydges noted that political media strategists are increasingly becoming attuned to the unique benefits these digital platforms provide.
Pia Carusone, who manages the political advertising department at strategic firm SKDK, told CNBC that she sees immense value in the specific audience-targeting features offered by modern streaming environments. Traditional media buys, such as purchasing an NBC spot in New York City, require buying the entire geographic market. In contrast, streaming and CTV platforms offer significantly more nuanced audience targeting, enabling campaigns to deliver messages directly to specific demographic subsets.
Ultimately, however, Carusone emphasized that modern political advertising strategy relies on maintaining a diversified portfolio rather than relying on a single channel. "You can’t just do digital. You can’t just do linear," she said. "Good buyers today are buying across the spectrum."
